Saturday, March 11, 2006

It's The ......Poll Train

Ok..I know. I just showed my age by trying to make a word play on the old Soul Train tv show.

It's kind of ironic that the Clintons (both Bill and Hillary) live by the polls; however, the polls haven't been to friendly to Senator Clinton as of late.

In a recent post I cited a Siena College/Hearst Newspapers poll. Interestingly, a recent Siena Research Institute contains additional information that doesn't seem to bode to well for Senator Clinton's 2008 aspirations. Although the poll's main headline is "Attorney General Eliot Spitzer Still Crushes All Republican Opponents", the most important information is sitting right in the first few paragraphs. Yeah, yeah...there's other data in the article about Clinton still leading her opponent John Spencer by 25 points, but read further.

In the next paragraph, it reads as follows:
"“While six in ten New York voters think Hillary is running for President in 2008, only slightly more than one-third think George Pataki is running for President,"” said Joe Caruso, Director of Polling for the Siena Research Institute (SRI). "“Only 20 percent said they would vote for the Governor if he ran for President,...
Now, that's where the major media outlets will stop...but that sentence continues.
...and Hillary did not fare well with New York voters either, with only 36 percent saying they would vote for her and 48 percent saying they would not."
Did you catch that, only 36 percent of NEW YORKERS would vote for Senator Clinton if she ran for President. Now the pollsters are quick to point out that only 48 percent stated they would not vote for Senator Clinton. But, that just doesn't add up...48 percent plus 36 percent does NOT equal 100%. Wouldn't it have been more accurate to state that in all 64 percent of NEW YORKERS would vote for another candidate for President.

Now, if NEW YORKERS (Please note the use of capitals in each reference for emphasis) vote are responding this way, I believe it is important to note that some of the most liberal voters in the nation will only vote for Senator Clinton for President at a rate of 36 out of 100. Remember fair reader, that's in a BLUE state. How do you think the rest of the RED states are going to vote?

Monday, March 06, 2006

The People Are Speaking

Considering that Bill Clinton never did ANYTHING without first checking recent polling data, I figured we might as well continue with more recent polling data.

In a recent Siena College/Hearst newspapers poll, 44% of respondents now say that Senator Clinton should NOT run in 2008. That's almost 10 points higher than the 37% last year. The number of respondents that believe Senator Clinton should still run has dropped to 51% from 53%.

Now, asking the same questions to respondents about Condoleeza Rice yields different results. A year ago, 42% said that Condi should run. However, this year, that has risen to 48%. The number of respondents saying she should NOT run has dropped from 41% to 39%.

Interesting... The angry Senator Clinton that seems ever present in the media these days just doesn't seem to be helping the poll numbers. I guess it's back to the drawing board.